Early polling tells you almost nothing about presidential nomination battles, since it ends up almost exclusively telling you about name recognition. Early media buzz is similar. People like to read stories about figures they’ve already heard of, and it’s easier to write stories about politicians you’ve already covered.

But you don’t need to be a celebrity to win a nomination, you just need to be known — and liked — by the network of elected officials, operatives, donors, and ideological activists who make up a modern political party. And that’s why I think a not-so-famous politician is actually the guy with the best shot at being the GOP’s candidate in 2016.

Meet Indiana governor and former House member Mike Pence. Here’s why his chances of being the next Republican nominee for president are excellent.

More: 7 Reasons Mike Pence Will Be the GOP Nominee in 2016 - Vox