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Early Voting Gives Romney a 21-Point Lead in Florida

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Nyet1/31/2012 2:28:23 pm PST

Three last paragraphs:

So to the extent that we have confidence in SIII and NIII for the coming decades, we can expect solar and natural internal variability to counter to some extent the AGW. For how many decades? Well, our most recent climate shift occurred ca 2001/2002. There would probably be another climate shift before 2050, perhaps more likely in the latter half of the period. Whether this would be a shift to cooling or warming is arguable; it depends on the strength of the solar cooling and whether there are indirect solar effects (e.g. Svensmark) that are not accounted for in climate models. We just don’t know.

The bottom line is that there are some plausible scenarios whereby we could see relatively flat temperature trends (or even cooling) in the coming decades. Santer et al. have allowed for the possibility of such periods lasting for as long as 17 years in the presence of anthropogenic forcing. I am saying that such periods could occur for 30+ years from natural internal variability, and longer if solar turns out to have a greater impact than currently accounted for in the climate models.

The failure of the climate community to acknowledge these possible future scenarios driven by natural variability is laying the ground for their climate model projections to be possibly falsified within the next decade. Nature is about to carry out a very interesting experiment.