1/ Russian sources reportedly say that Sergei Shoigu’s plan to defang the Wagner Group failed because he didn’t anticipate Yevgeny Prigozhin’s personal popularity. Prigozhin had prior knowledge of the moves being made against him, leading to his strike against Rostov-on-Don. pic.twitter.com/2B3jpFSJIZ

— ChrisO_wiki (@ChrisO_wiki) June 28, 2023

Thread. TLDR: Shoigu is unsackable because he knows too much and has too many loyalists, but was essentially a prisoner during the coup and negotiations. Prigozhin couldn’t just be disposed of because, again, there are too many loyalists to him in the Russian Ministry of Defense. Both sides knew something was up days in advance. Putin didn’t know whether to shit or go blind during all of this, and now nothing’s really resolved.