re: #616 Fairly Sure I’m Still Obdicut

Okay. Why do you think that taking Crimea and/or the Ukraine would improve Russia’s stability?

I don’t think it necessarily would, actually. I have no problem if they take Crimea, but that’s my red line.

Empires are psychological; a successful invasion and conquest of Ukraine would put the wind in their sails - it would give them enormous psychological momentum. A sense of nationalistic pride.

But a defeat in an attempted Russian conquest would do the opposite; it’s a morale-killer. And possibly, it might be enough to bring about a collapse of the Russian government, as the oligarchs and the other politicians who back Putin would realize, “Geez - this guy lead Russia into a debacle.”

Now I know there’s no guaranteed that a Putin replacement would be better, or perhaps more democratically-inclined. Hopefully, it won’t be an absolute loon like Zhironovsky (yeesh).

It’s a risk - a major risk. It could backfire quite spectacularly. But to inflict a defeat on a former empire - one with a rather dubious military history, such as the Battle of the Tsushima Straits as well - that has more or less imperial ambitions and is feeling its oats, that’s worth it. Maybe they’ll finally realize that they’ll always be a second-rate military power, no matter what they do. That they really are a “Colossus with feet of clay”.

And with any luck, they’ll just say, “Fuck it - it’s not worth it” and throw in the towel. And when they drop their imperial ambitions, maybe they’ll finally start on working to make themselves a peaceful, prosperous, and functional democratic state - something they should have done a long time ago.