re: #662 Jeff In Ohio

Thats sort of what Blinder and Zandhi were attempting to do with their recent paper based on fairly complex computer models - both shows the effect of the stimulus by showing what would have happened if we sat on our hands and did nothing.
[Link: www.nytimes.com…]

Are those the same models that accurately predicted the onset of the current recession?

Oh, wait…

Seriously, though - there aren’t any good economic models. And in this case, both NPR and BBC news accurately claimed that while the Administration would certainly take note of this article and heavily promote it, the underlying models and the data fed into them was questionable at best.

In real life, the number of distinct economic predictions always exceeds the number of distinct economists making them. If I cared, it wouldn’t take long to find other published work claiming exactly the opposite of what this does, and providing similarly compelling support.

Which is to say, not compelling at all.