Like I’ve said before, keep an eye on the Suwałki Gap :

A group of a hundred soldiers from the Russian Wagner group have moved closer to the Belarusian city of Grodno near the Polish border, Polish prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki has said.

Poland, a former Warsaw Pact member which has been a full member of the US-led NATO military alliance since 1999, has been concerned about the possible spillover of war on to its territory ever since Russian invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Reuters reports.

The move of several thousand Wagner mercenaries to Belarus was part of a deal that ended the group’s mutiny attempt in June, when they took control of a Russian military headquarters, marched on Moscow and threatened to tip Russia into civil war, president Vladimir Putin has said.

Earlier this month, Poland began moving more than 1,000 troops to the east of the country amid rising concerns that the presence of Wagner fighters in Belarus could lead to increased tension on its border.

theguardian.com

Putin might try something - though it seems suicidal, it fits in with his “escalate to de-escalate” strategy. He’s shown himself to be a reckless gambler, and he may be (mistakenly) thinking that if Wagner personnel made a move, he’s got plausible deniability and that NATO will end up dithering on what to do in regard to such a move.