re: #12 Obdicut

I think a lot of people falsely believe in an equilibrium; as in, believe that there is some ideal state for the planet that systems force towards. That’s one of the significant problems; people do not still fully understand that the system is arbitrary, and that biological entities have adapted to it.

People falsely conflate the give-and-take of a biological system— the boom and bust of wolves and rabbits, for example— to the physical systems which may include biological entities but do not have the same relationship at all.

This is the root of some of the sillier “We can just adapt” arguments, as though evolution were something that could happen as quickly as environments change.

I think you are half right. The Earth reached a certain equilibrium that was conducive to life like ours. What people fail to get is that there can be more than one equilibrium point and the entire reason that tipping points are so terrible is that once you cross one, you are now being forced into a new equilibrium.

That new equilibrium is not so good for us or most species on the planet.

When people make those arguments, I point out that Venus and the Moon are in states of a certain equilibrium too - but that you would not want to live there.

In some sense, it is continuing the fallacy that natural = good, some notion that mother nature will always take care of you. The fact is that AIDS and getting eaten by a shark are both very natural events.

The new equilibrium will be natural in the sense that the laws of physics are obeyed. So soon other “natural things that result from the new equilibrium will be very unpleasant. It will be natural to die from it. Getting eaten by a bear is natural, but so is starving to death because your planet simply can not grow enough food anymore. So is dying from dehydration because you can not find enough fresh water. So is dying from an infection that you had no immunity to, but was introduced into your home by shifting climate patterns forcing new critters to take up residence with you.