Interesting thread on the possible “broad picture” outcome of the Ukraine War:

.@SabFis3: “the immense pressure generated by the war and the Western sanctions could bring about domestic political change and see an end to Putin’s regime. The conceivable scenarios, however, point to destabilisation rather than democratisation.” https://t.co/95pps9urXC

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) April 25, 2022

tl;dr

It appears to outsiders that Russian policymakers are currently in agreement on Russia’s current policies.

To ensure that Russia does not return to attack Ukraine, it may require removal of that internal agreement. Which, basically means destabilizing the current political order.

But that opens up risks:

“if the Russian political system implodes a major destabilisation must be expected. Regional secessionism, violence, even civil war would not be excluded. The biggest risk in this context would be Ramzan Kadyrov’s reign of terror in Chechnya.”