re: #147 ckkatz

War (and humans) is/are very complex and very hard to predict. A lot of highly experienced analysts did not believe that the Ukrainians would survive and even prosper a year in.

At this point, the Ukrainians seem to continue becoming better organized and better equipped. And is still mobilizing fresh soldiers. The Russians appear less successful.
(And yes, Russia’s population is 3-4 times the population of Ukraine.)

I am more optimistic now than a year ago that the Ukrainians are going to persevere and increase their successes on the battlefield.

I do think that we will get a better idea as the spring and summer offensives and counter maneuvers ‘play’ out.

Regarding ‘holding’ out.

As long as the Ukrainians are willing to fight, I do not think that the Russians can win.

Such a fight might be over in a couple of years of conventional war. Or it could take a generation of guerilla war. But I am not convinced that Russia can bring the long term resources needed for a long fight against a determined Ukraine.

One note - Despite the movies and propaganda, wars are a mess and things are rarely obvious clean triumphs. I do not expect a complete Russian collapse. Which means that there will likely not be an unambiguous end to the war.

Thank you for your very well thought out response. I am not trying to be a negative Nelly, just trying to be observant. I worry that with the constant request for more equipment, will come the eventual request for manpower, and a slow walk to a wider conflict. I write this here, because every time I do, I am wrong, and I do not want to see any more suffering.