The contest Ryan won was a swing district that would looking like a Republican pick-up:
This is a disaster for the Republican party. These results in NY-19 are not representative of a red wave year. At this point, we have to be seriously contending with the fact that this will be a neutral or even blue-leaning midterm, and the House is a Tossup.
— Political Election Projections (@tencor_7144) August 24, 2022
There will definitely be no red wave.