re: #583 sattv4u2

Sorry, but thats bad math. You cannot add the two “statistics”. They are seperate variables. In the 1st you’re stating that out of every 100 plane crashes 47% of the time everyone will survive

In scenario #2 out of the 53 plane crashes (out of a hundred) you have a 1 in 4 chance of living, meaning if you are in a crash that has survivors 75% of people die

However, if you make an assumption as to the average number of people per plane, you can figure out the individual survival rate.

Assume the average number of people is N per plane. Then the probability of all N surviving is given as 0.47. If the individual survival probability is p then p^N = 0.47. From there, it’s easy to calculate p. For N = 200, p = 0.876.

Sattv4u2, did I get it right?