Dem memo: No, we won’t lose the House

In another sign that House Dem leaders are eager to silence talk about them losing the House, top Democrats are circulating a memo on Capitol Hill that lays out a detailed case for why Republicans will come up short this fall.

The argument in the DCCC memo, which was sent over by a source and opens a window on Dem thinking about the political landscape in a difficult year, is two-fold.The key points: First, Republicans simply can’t put enough seats in play to win the House. Second, the Tea Party has become a massive liability nationally in multiple unappreciated ways.

Here’s the memo’s argument about the number of seats in play:

Republicans will need to win 39 seats to take back the House. Democrats will win at least four Republican seats (the best opportunities include: LA-02, HI-01, IL-10, DE-AL, FL-25). As a result, the real number of seats Republicans will have to pick up to win a majority is at least 43. To win 43 seats, the NRCC would need to put 70 to 80 seats in play. The NRCC have simply not put that many Republicans seats in play and do not have the resources or caliber of candidates to do so.

The memo adds that wave elections are largely fueled by open seats, and that there aren’t enough open seats this time around:

This cycle, there are only 20 Democratic open seats, including several that are in safe districts. If Republicans have a great election night, they would still only win 50 percent of the Democratic open seats. Conservatively, Republicans would then need to beat 35 Democratic incumbents to win the House - which is simply not possible given the Republicans resources deficit.

And here’s the memo’s argument about the Tea Party:

The Tea Party has presented three problems for Republicans. The most glaring problem is where the Tea Party candidate has defeated the moderate (and more electable) Republican candidate. Second, Republican candidates are being forced to take unpopular extreme positions to satisfy the ideological base to avoid defeat in their primaries. Third, we are seeing numerous Tea Party candidates run as third party candidates which is splitting the Republican vote…

There are more than 100 conservative third party candidates on the ballot. This is important because it lowers the win number for the Democratic candidate.

(please excuse my obsession with electoral politics and holding the line against conservatives. i know that there are republicans and conservatives here, but i consider myself a teddy roosevelt progressive)